Real Rivalry Between Electric And Gasoline Vehicles Will Begin In 5 Years

Tesla-Model_3-2018

The main barrier to mass use of electric cars is their high cost, which should disappear by 2024, analysts suppose. When the price balance between EVs and cars with ICEs is established, a real battle for customers will begin in the market.

Electric vehicles will become more affordable in the near future

The cost of electric-powered cars will significantly reduce, according to Driving (British magazine), which refers to Deloitte’s (financial and analytical company) research.

One of the main factors to contribute in cutting costs for end-users will be reduction of technological expenses during production and government incentive programs.

Audi e-tron
Audi e-tron

The first is clear. Cheaper batteries are being developed. In China, for example, they reported of the first achievements.

As for incentives, the matter is not so easy. In the USA, in particular, federal tax credit of $7,500, on the contrary, will be abolished in a year.

Does the market need an extra 14 million electric cars?

For the entire 2018, around 2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide. The volume of sales of gasoline and diesel cars has not been calculated yet, but it will exceed 80 million.

Flipboard

In 2020, 4 million EVs are expected to sell, by 2030 – 21 million. However, despite the boom in sales of hybrid and electric cars in the coming years, Deloitte experts believe that the EV market risks becoming unstable.

Based on the projected increase in production, it is estimated that the automotive industry will be able to produce 14 million more hybrid and pure electric vehicles than needed in the next decade. This means that supply can considerably outweigh consumer demand.

Electric cars are out of diapers

Recent developments show that in terms of their technical part, performance and dynamics, electric vehicles actually approach gasoline and diesel-powered cars. There are many examples: the Jaguar I-Pace, Audi e-tron, new Kias, Hyundais, BMWs. Mercedes-Benz presented its first production crossover; VW developed a separate platform for its all-electric cars. The list may go on.

2019 Jaguar I-Pace
2019 Jaguar I-Pace

In fact, green pickup trucks can really spur demand for EVs. There are prototypes not only from Tesla, but also from new companies, such as Rivian. GMC is going to develop its own electric pickup. The Ford F-150 gets a fully electric version, so General Motors won’t stand aside.

In short, the range is expanding, and the battle between electric and gasoline vehicles is possible soon, though 2024, in our opinion, is too early for a full-fledged rivalry.

Price remains EVs’ disadvantage

Speaking about pricing, currently gasoline and diesel models have nothing to fear. The cheapest Tesla Model 3, for example, costs from $44,000 in the U.S. The latest Toyota Corolla, for comparison, is priced at $18,700.

Well, the Corolla is not a premium class model. The new BMW 3 Series, if you wish, costs from $40,250 in the United States. With all due respect to Tesla, BMW is BMW, and it’s too early to talk about real rivalry between them today. Another thing – in 5 years…

One comment

  • For many of us, the rivalry was settled long ago. Electric won. Now being forced into driving an ICE vehicle is only slightly less annoying as being forced to go to your in-laws for Thanksgiving and having to sleep in a separate room from your spouse.

    I keep hearing about how outlandishly expensive EVs are. The average selling price in the US is around $33,000. That’s according to KBB.com ($32,000) and Edmunds ($34,000). There are now EVs in that under $40,000 price range before incentives. The Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf, Kia e-Niro, Hyundai Kona-ev and Ford Focus-ev to name a few. When you factor in the lower fuel and maintenance costs TCO can be much less than an ICE depending on where you live. Also don’t forget most EVs are leased, not purchased. Why? it’s cheaper and you’re not stuck with a car with out of date technology in 3 years. Not everyone can afford a car and fewer still can afford a decent car. That’s the reality the “EVs are too expensive” crowd is going to have to accept.

    The real problem is most people have never heard of these cars. They don’t get advertised or put on most showroom floors. The sales people are trained at NOT selling them. Everyone has heard of ‘Crazy Elon’ and his ‘rich man’s toy’ electric cars. Ask any random person on the street to name an electric car brand and they either have no idea such things exist, or they blurt out “Tesla!”. Surveys repeatedly show something like 95% of EV drivers either NEVER want to go back to an ICE vehicle for daily use, or NEVER want to own another ICE vehicle. What that tells me is there isn’t any rivalry. The general motoring public just has no idea what their options truly are.

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